This is the third in a series of edited extracts from a new ASPI publication, The geopolitics of climate and security in the Indo-Pacific, released today. The first article presented a 2035 climate security scenario, which is the reference point for subsequent articles, including this one.

While the forces shaping the Indo-Pacific’s energy transition out to 2035 are complex, some macro trends are clear. Energy demand in the region is projected to grow drastically and remain concentrated in urban areas, and power infrastructure will remain highly vulnerable to climate impacts. The uneven availability of finance to countries attempting to make the transition from fossil fuels to renewable-based energy systems is perhaps the most significant risk. Without major policy shifts, these trends prefigure widespread energy insecurity in 2035, with far-reaching implications for regional security, as the following projection to 2035…

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