This bull market’s strongest gains are behind us.
That’s the conclusion I reached upon analyzing all U.S. bull markets since 1900. The good news is that, assuming the future is like the past, the current bull market still has more months of life in store. The bad news is that the stock market’s gains during those months are likely to be far more modest than what we’ve gotten used to over the last 12 months.
This suggests that we should not extrapolate the last 12 months’ gains into the future.
My analysis takes issue with those analysts who argue that the stock market’s strength over the last 12 months is a bullish omen. In fact there’s nothing particularly unusual about how strong the market was coming off its March 23, 2020, low.
That may seem hard to believe, given that the Dow Jones Industrial Average
gained an incredible 74.4% over the 12 months from…