Any individual special election such as this one comes with its caveats, but the trend in special state elections this year is becoming noticeable. Republicans are doing better than they were in the beginning of the year, and it could foretell their party’s success in 2022.

Across more than 30 special state legislative and federal elections during the Biden presidency, Republicans are doing 4 points better on average than former President Donald Trump did in these same districts last year.

Some of these races included multiple Democratic and/or Republican candidates running at the same time in what is known as a jungle election. If we focus only on non-jungle races in data compiled by Ethan Chen, Republicans are outperforming the 2020 presidential baseline by 3 points.

Either way you look at it, there has been a slight Republican overperformance compared to where things stood last year.

Such a change is not too large. Remember, too,…

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