The strong rebound in world oil demand seems to be over.

The summer months brought some turbulence to the oil market. The steady surge witnessed earlier this year came to a halt and instead oil prices moved down and up within a $65 to $75 range.

This raises the question if the latest prices swings are a sign to watch more closely, a sign that the market is changing direction.

The oil market mostly follows textbook economics, like any other commodity market , once we cancel out the omnipresent noise. Tightening fundamentals as mirrored in declining storage levels bring tailwinds to prices and vice versa. Thanks to the sizeable futures trading, oil takes part in financial markets and gets exposure to the flip-flopping of the economic mood.

The bullishness or bearishness adds a short-term sentiment-related cyclical element on top of the more medium-term economic-related cyclical element. Separating these…

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