What a difference a few months can make in this COVID-19 economy. Back in spring and early summer, people around the developed world were getting vaccinated at a decent clip, economies were reopening, people were getting back to work.

Then the delta variant started spreading, overwhelming health care systems, clogging supply chains and raising prices, taking some wind out of the sails of the global recovery.

Now, we’re not likely heading back into another global recession, but there are signs of cooling both here and in other major economies — the United Kingdom, the European Union, China and Japan.

A few months ago, a lot of economists saw a clear path to global recovery paved by vaccination and stimulus from governments and central banks. 

Neil Shearing at Capital Economics was one of them. Now, he’s not so sure.

“In a…

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