It’s not that proponents of the campaign to remove Gov. Gavin Newsom from office didn’t know the math needed to pull off a stunning political upset on Tuesday.

Winning would have meant three things: very high Republican turnout; an even split, at worst, among independent voters; and a Democratic base weakened by defections to the “yes” side or voters who didn’t show up.

But in politics, as in life, numbers don’t lie. And early on election night, it was clear that things simply didn’t add up for recall supporters.

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