Is bitcoin an emerging “safe haven” asset in an increasingly uncertain world, or just another speculative instrument, a tech-ed up tulip for the digital age?

This question is central to bitcoin’s latest boom, which has coincided with a sell-off in the U.S. dollar and less luster for gold as the Covid-19 pandemic rages, sovereign liabilities balloon, the U.S. experiences its most tumultuous transition of power since the 19th century, and geopolitical risks grow in the Middle East and East Asia. At the same time, risk is clearly on for global investors: equity markets keep soaring while U.S. Treasury yields are climbing, with government stimulus and vaccine optimism driving bets on global reflation. 

GeoQuant’s data helps us hazard an answer. In short: while bitcoin appears more like a speculative reflection of geopolitical risks than protection against them, it does get traction as a hedge against (growing) U.S. country…

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